COVID-19 Curve Tracker

The COVID-19 Curve Tracker project is led by Professor Tom Pike of Imperial College London with assistance from Vikas Saini, president of the Lown Institute. The initial results of their study were documented in a preprint titled “An international comparison of the second derivative of COVID-19 deaths after implementation of social distancing measures.”

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Note: Research work on Covid-19 is ongoing but updates have been suspended.

This project examines the daily change in the rate of death for selected countries. Each country’s curve is aligned with an intelligent reference curve calculated from historical data available from countries that have already completed a coronavirus cycle. The reference curve allows for the projection of daily deaths, peak deaths, and total deaths in countries currently in a coronavirus cycle.

Media Contact

Direct media inquiries to Aaron Toleos,, (978) 821-4620.

Data Sources

European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC)
The COVID Tracking Project


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